Idol's Fifth Judge Breaks It Down

Evil

There are 10 contestants left. So in a blind draw, each contestant has a 10% chance of winning it all. That is, assuming the drawing is fair, i.e., Scott "The Blind Guy" doesn't get a free ride in the blind draw like he's getting on the show. But of course, it doesn't work that way... this is a competition, baby! And here's how the Fifth Judge sees the odds...

The Long Shots

These people all have a 1% chance of becoming this year's Idol: Michael "The Rough Neck" Sarver, Scott "The Blind Guy," and Lil "No Nickname Needed" Rounds.

The Rough Neck's lack of chops has been exposed and I think everyone can admit that. Nice guy or not, this guy is not long for the competition.

The Bling Guy annoys the heck out of me. The first few weeks, I blamed it on his very creepy blank stare. That's still annoying, but this week I finally pinned it... you know what annoys me the most about him? The fact that he sings like his nose is completely stuffed up. How come none of the judges have raised this issue? Oh, because he's blind and they feel sorry for him. This isn't the Special Olympics, dude! You're getting the boot within 2 weeks.

Yes, I know you all love Lil Rounds's voice but don't act shocked that she's a long shot. She just doesn't stand out. This week proved it. She should have KILLED motown week. But as it were, she was ho-hum at best.

The Improbables

Kris "The Good Looking But Plain White Guy" has a 3% chance of winning. Like Kara said this week, it's all about artistry from here on out. By definition, if it's "all about artistry," do you know what it's NOT about, buddy? Your good looks. Kris is gonna get exposed as the producers throw the wacky and varied genres at him.

Anoop Dawg has a 4% chance of winning. He's in Kris's boat in terms of chops (he'll get exposed too) but he doesn't have the good looks. He makes up for it by being actually likable. Plus he's Indian and you know what an army of call center operators the Indians have. They could mobilize behind him so I give him slightly better odds than Kris.

Matt "The Soulful White Guy" has a 6% chance of winning. This guy has soul, has vocal chops, has piano chops, and has overall artistry. But he also has the fatal flaw of being a straight white guy. His competition's gonna eat him up in the later rounds.

Megan "The Tattoo Sleeve Girl" has an 8% chance of winning. She's original, yes. But the best thing she's going for her is that she's a smokin' hot girl at a sausage party. That's gonna keep her in the competition for several more weeks and after that, she might just get her sea legs and steal this thing.

The Heavy Hitters

So that leaves Danny Gokey Downey Jr, Allison "The Read Headed 16 Year Old," and Adam "Theatre Queen" Lambert as our favorites.

Danny has a 12% chance of winning. He's a great singer and performer. He's got soul. He's 27 and already has a dead wife. His guy's got some heart and America will vote for him. He's definitely going to be in the final 3.

Allison has a 14% chance of winning. As the leading chick in a sausage fest, I've got to give her slightly better odds than Danny. Beyond the demographical advantage, she also has a better shot at becoming a successful recording artist. She's contemporary. She's original. She can sell records. With Danny, it's a crap shoot. He may very well become the next Taylor Hicks. Taylor who? Yeah.

So now we're down to Adam. If my math is correct (which is dubious, because I've been drinking), he has a 50% chance of winning. This guy has got everything going for him. First of all, he's basically got a mulligan in his pocket because if he gets voted off, you know the judges will use their "save" on him in a heartbeat. So that means he has liberty to take some chances artistically. He also has damn fine control of his facial expressions. This is a big advantage for him. If you watch his performance with the TV on mute, I'd bet you'd still like it. Do the same thing with Anoop Dawg and notice that there's a huge difference. And on top of all that, this guy is contemporary, has an amazing vocal range, is gay, is great looking (I bet he gets tons of ass, and by "ass" I mean "anus"), and is so artistic I bet he farts artistry. He's got this one nearly locked up. The biggest runaway win since Carrie Underwood.