Conan O'Brien Conspiracy

I have a soft spot in my heart for Conan O’Brien and wish him well, but I’ve never bothered to watch him as host of the Tonight Show. Apparently, that describes a lot of other people as well. Last night Catjjy and I spent some time catching up on the controversy. We read Conan’s letter and tuned in to nbc.com and Hulu to watch his show. Before long, I had a deep and resounding desire to see Conan win this battle, so I could watch him host the Tonight Show for years to come.

And then it hit me: could this actually be a FAKE FIGHT, designed to secure Conan’s spot in America’s heart, and solve a few other pesky problems for NBC to boot? I won’t call it a conspiracy theory. I don’t believe in conspiracies. Let’s just call it a brilliant marketing ploy.

Consider the evidence:

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1. It’s working great. I bet when the numbers come out, this week’s ratings will be the highest for the Show in years. People who haven’t seen an episode of the Tonight Show since they were kids are showering support for Conan on Facebook and other places, imploring NBC to keep him on a show they never watched in the first place.

2. Both Conan and the Show really, really needed a marketing gimmick. Until last week, nobody even cared that Conan had taken over, which is just about the worst fate the Show could suffer.

3. A surprising number of people seem to feel free to jump in. The dude who plays Kenneth on 30 Rock showed up two nights ago for a pro-Conan, anti-NBC skit. He’s a young actor who is two years into a bit part that is the only paying acting job he has ever had. And he’s on TV goofing on his employer? Without a green light from somebody upstairs? Seems unlikely.

4. The brouhaha allows Jay Leno to swoop in and save the day, restoring his reputation and allowing him to gracefully bow out of his show, which wasn’t the success he had hoped it would be. Here’s what will happen: the boneheads at NBC will move Jay to 11:30. Jay will say “ENOUGH! I will NOT be a part of your attempt to destroy this franchise!! I’m closing down my show so that the Tonight Show can stay at 11:30 where it belongs, with Conan as host.”

In the end, Jay Leno avoids the humiliation of getting canceled and gets sainted for saving the Tonight Show. Conan gets a huge shot in the arm for a show that really needs it. NBC network executives look foolish…all the way to the bank. Everyone is happy.

If this is a ploy, it is an incredibly audacious one. My hat goes off to the executive that had the grapes to give it a try.

Annoyance of the day: Bellyaching about terrorists

All this heated agitation about the failure of the government to protect us from terrorists on airplanes is annoying. Is anyone else pretty relieved by what has been revealed in the past couple of airline terrorist attack attempts? Consider the following examples:

Case 1: A well funded, well trained organization spends a full year planning every last detail of an attack. They find a non-Arab attacker, and successfully get him a US travel visa. Everything goes right for them at the airport, and the guy gets on the plane. What’s the problem? He could only sneak enough explosive onto the airplane to incinerate his own junk. The airplane and the passengers were never in danger.

Case 2: A pretty active splinter group spends all sorts of time devising a bomb that fits inside a shoe. The guy makes it onto the airplane with it, but cannot detonate the device before being restrained. However, nearly every expert agrees that such a device was nowhere near large enough to disable a commercial jetliner. Again, the worst he could have done is perhaps hurt a few of the people around him, and you will never stop people from being able to do that.

Do I wish our intelligence officers had picked these guys up earlier? Of course. Would I be happy sitting next to the idiot that just melted his testicles or blew his damn foot off? Of course not. But I’m also pretty excited that the worst either of these organizations could have done, even if their plans had been executed flawlessly, would be to cause some non-fatal commotion.

I feel better about airline safety than I did before these “attacks.” Stop yo’ bellyachin’!

Recognition...FINALLY

I received a promotion at work this week, and I’m pretty happy about it. I was trying to think back to my last promotion and realized something interesting: since I entered the work force part time in 1991, and then full time in 1998, I have never received a discretionary promotion. At my last job, my title changed once as part of a statutory advancement of my entire incoming class, but that doesn’t count.

My career has advanced nicely during that time, but the really big jumps have been between jobs, after grad school, etc. Not promotions. That really surprised me. Surely there were two or three promotions in there somewhere, right? Nope.

Turns out, Catjjy hasn’t ever been promoted either (though she is due for a promotion of sorts in current profession come February). Are we the oddballs here? Are the rest of you Hosers receiving promotions every couple of years? Did KB1 used to be a High Flying Marketing Associate before he became a High Flying Marketing Executive?

Calling Sparks. SOS. Knox Trial Drawing to a Close

Sparks!!! WTF? Weren't you going to be our Knox Trial correspondent? Months and months of silence, and then I read today this thing is nearing an end?

What should I be thinking? What do I need to know? Is she a monster? Or is Italy the monster? What impact will this have on other slutty American girls who want to dodge a semester of academics in favor of drug fueled orgies? And how do we pursue a teaching post at these places? Do they need a High Flying Marketing Professor?

Today is my birthday. Also today, the odometer on the 13-year-old jalopy that I drive every day hit my birthday, 11/15/76! It's a Birthday Miracle!

I'm not sure what the odds of this are. If you assume that the odometer was going to hit 111576 at some point, then the odds that it would happen on a November 15 of some year would be 1/365 = 0.27%. But I think the probability is actually lower, since you have to figure that probability of an old Jeep lasting 13 years and over 100,000 miles is less than 100%, and the probability that it will stay in the same family that entire time is even lower.

Still, I think it's pretty neat.

Happy Birthday, Sparks

If anyone is looking for what to get Sparks for his birthday, I dug up a letter (hand written! No spell check!) said Birthday Boy wrote me in 1994 regarding his music preferences:

"80% of the music that I listen to is alternative. Well, at least I used to think it was alternative until Mtv started calling bands like Pearl Jam and The Breeders alternative. Now I guess I have to say I like underground music. Some of my personal favorites are Ministry, Thrill Kill Kult, Coil, Skinny Puppy, Nine Inch Nails, Tear Garden, and The Legendary Pink Dots...In fact, the only thing I really hope you don't love is R&B. Please don't say that you have R Kelly's new one and everything Shai ever wrote."

Birthday wishes.

Sparks = Creepy

Congratulations go to Sparks on creeping out The Hose readership with his lust for David Brooks. Catjjy might be advised to look under the mattress for all of the editorials he has cut out and hidden away in there.

Baseball Question

There seem to be a couple of Hosers on here who think they know everything about baseball. Last night, I was watching baseball, and I saw something that I've seen many times before, which has never made sense to me. I could, of course, just look it up on the internet and find an answer. But I'm a blogger. We do things differently.

So, smartypantses, when a pitcher gets 1 out in an inning and is pulled, why does he only get credit for .2 innings in the stats?

I'm going to go ahead and throw the tag Sparks = Wrong on here because I'm pretty sure he doesn't know.

Sparks Delivers

KB1 tasked me with determining the odds of getting exactly one Liberty Quarter (“LQ”) and one Wheat Penny (“WP”) as the result of a cash transaction. The following analysis is necessarily built on a lot of assumptions, but I think it makes for a decent ballpark estimate. Here goes:

Getting exactly one quarter and one penny as change only happens when a transaction total comes to $X.74. We first need to calculate the odds of that happening. I assume half of all cash transactions in NYC end in an even-quarter increment (cab ride with tip is $12.00; Diet Coke at deli is $1.50). All other transactions are distributed evenly across the remaining 96 two-digit cent outcomes. Thus the probability of receiving exactly one quarter and one penny in a transaction is .5 x 1/96 = 0.52%.

Next, we need to identify the probability of that quarter being an LQ. Somebody on the interweb helpfully studied a sample of 1,000 quarters last year and noted the following: (1) there were no quarters before 1965, the year the mint stopped putting silver in quarters, (2) 41% were from this decade, (3) 28% were from the ‘90s, (4) 18% were from the ‘80s, (5) the remaining 13% were from 1965 – 1979, (6) across each bucket, the years were fairly evenly distributed. Thus the probability that a random quarter will be an LQ (at least in 2008) is 0.13/15 = 0.867%.

We now need to run the same analysis for pennies. I didn’t find anything useful on the web. Indeed, KB1’s stash of LQs and WPs would be hugely helpful here. In the absence of anything else, I know I receive many more LQs than WPs these days. Probably 4-1. So let’s say that the probability of a random penny being a WP is about a quarter of the probability that a quarter is a LQ, or 0.00867/4 = 0.217%.

The probability of KB1’s transaction is thus 0.52% x 0.867% x 0.217% = 0.00001%, or one out of every 10 million cash transactions.

Let’s say the average New Yorker makes 5 cash transactions per day. We would expect to see KB1’s change event happen once every 2 million person-days, or once every 5,600 person-years.

Of course, there are 8 million people in NYC. So we would expect KB1’s change event to happen to 4 people in the City every day. Not exactly winning the lottery, but not bad, either.

Catjjy and Sparks Caught Ridin’ Dirty

Yesterday started out just like any other perfect day in our perfect lives. Catjjy and I were taking The Cha out to Muir Beach for some fun in the sun, with a pop by an ancient pub for some beers and tasty lunch. Just as we hopped on the freeway, a state Highway Patrol officer starts jockin’ us. He pulls up right beside me and stares me down. He drifts back behind us and rides my bumper. He rolls up on Catjjy’s side to check her out. Then falls back again. After 5 miles of this he finally flashes his lights and pulls us over.

We were going the speed limit the entire time. Our tags are up to date. Seatbelts on. Not using a cell phone. We had no idea why we're being pulled over. Turns out, our front windows are tinted too dark. We are instructed to remove the tint, and issued a citation that becomes a ticket if we don’t get it taken care of in 30 days.

(not actually our car, but nearly identical)

This seems like the kind of thing that happens to Asian street racers and Cholo gangstas with tricked out Impallas. I bought this car new, right off the lot. No after-market stuff at all. Who knew GM would sell you a car that was not street legal? Could this be part of their problem? (In fairness to GM, we bought the car in a different state, which presumably has different tint laws).

I’m pretty ticked about the whole thing. As a white man, I’m often disadvantaged in life. Graduate schools are harder to get into, I never have the best dance moves at a wedding, and my basketball game is relegated to low-probability jump shots from outside the key. But one thing I do have going for me is the implicit trust of police officers. Suddenly cops are skulking around, trying to catch me ridin’ dirty, just like Chamillionaire. Boooo.

And the Winner is.....!!!!!

Steph!!!!!!!

Congratulations!!!! Graffiti!!!!! Music!!!!!!! Glee!!!!!!

Steph guessed 10 tortoises, and I saw 8. This means Sparks would have tied with his guess of 6 if he hadn't overthought things and said 22. As it is, however, Steph gets a very very very special gift from the Galapagos.

Incidently, I saw 0 tortoises in captivity, but only because we managed to talk our guide out of a visit to the Charles Darwin center in favor of a trip to the highlands where real tortoises hang out.

This one is a male - about 100 years old.

A full Galapagos run down is scheduled for the next Hosecast.

Poll Results - The Outrage Dies Down

Evil

This poll was posted at the height of the AIG outrage. But like the rest of the nation, we Hosers seem to have calmed down. Our saner sides prevailed. (BTW- I think no one picked the 2nd option because everyone was offended by my grammar error.)

Way to Go Hosers. You Ruined It For Everyone

Well, according to the latest Hose Poll, "You" are to blame for the economic crisis. I hope it was worth it. I hope you can deal with a Lost Decade if that's what it comes to. Meanwhile "Me", who received 0 votes (Le Trois clearly didn't vote) is just trying to get by. Get your act together Hosers. Quit screwing the common man. Have some decency.







Editor's Note: I added a pic of the poll results "For The Record." - Rocky

Breaking It Down: Tuxedos

For our inaugural edition of "Breaking It Down", xTian, L3 and Sparks discuss proper Tuxedo etiquette.

xTian went looking for guidance prior to a big hoity toity event and ended up with conflicting advice and more than he could handle. A full on "posh b*st*rd" debate broke out between L3 and Sparks.

Watch how L3 casually dismisses everyone at the end either exhausted by the conversation or running late to a Thursday gray out.
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From: xTian
To: Le Troisieme, Sparks
Subject: Tuxedo Guidance

Fashionistas unite!

So you are going to the first annual [redacted ]Winter Gala - New York. The invitation lists attire as "Black Tie Optional"

What is the right scenario here? Should I

(1) Wear the full tux and tux fixins (vest and bow tie)
(2) Wear the full tux with bow tie, no vest or anything like that
(3) Wear the full tux with a straight tie

Also, if we go "mellow" formal (options 2 or 3) can I go with a straight white shirt or should I still wear my tuxedo shirt?

Thanks

xTian


From: Le Troisieme
To: xTian
Cc: Sparkes
Subject: Re: Tuxedo Guidance

The only right answer is (1). Organizers of these events wish they could say black tie required, but it would hurt turnout. Go full black tie.

From: Sparks
To: xTian
Cc: Le Triosieme
Subject: Re: Tuxedo Guidance

L3 and I have different takes on this. I agree that the organizers want you to look your best, but I believe you have a bit of leeway on how to pull that off. I think the following things almost always look goofy/wedding-rentaly/prom-esque: vests, cumberbunds, wing collars (i.e., collars where you can see the tie in the back), pleating or other similar distraction on the shirt. I think the following things are really awesome: studs, patent leather shoes, black bow ties (tied yourself, of course), structured shirts (i.e., super stiff with perhaps a barely noticeable detail; not pleats). As for the suit itself, I have a black suit which looks nicer and more formal than my tuxedo (or indeed, any tuxedo I have ever tried on) and can be worn with tuxedo accoutrement.

If it were me, I'd be in my black, awesome-fitting suit, closed-collar tuxedo shirt with studs, black bow tie, patent leather shoes. I would look as good and as formal as a Moby-looking dude can look. It's about looking your best, not about the silk ribbon running down the leg.

For inspiration:



Note that he skips the studs. I agree that the studs are a weak-link in my otherwise modern take on the tuxedo. I think I like that part just because I have a set of 1920's studs and cuffs that I just like to wear.

Here's a photo of my black suit (worn here as a suit, not as a tux):

[redacted]

Has L3 thrown up in his garbage can yet? Are we still friends?

From: xTian
To: Le Troisieme, Sparks
Subject: Re: Tuxedo Guidance

yeah this is exactly what I am trying to avoid. I like my tux, it fits me well etc but the bun is sort of gay and the vest is "eh".

good meeting guys.

thanks

PS- Sparks - you and i are on the same page. Thus why i even asked the question

From: Le Troisieme
To: xTian, Sparks
Subject: Re: Tuxedo Guidance

I threw up a little in my mouth. If the tuxedo doesn't fit, you are buying the wrong tuxedo. I'm more of a stickler for the satin lapels and satin stripe running down the side of the leg. This stripe is the reason why your trousers on your black tie or white tie pants should not be cuffed.
And don't get me started on renting tuxedos (as opposed to white tie tails and pants).

Agree that point down collar is perfectly acceptable for black tie, whether with real bow ties or real neckties. If you wear a spread collar, I might have to punch you. So long as it it is a formal shirt, I'm not sure if I need to have pleats -- my white tie shirt (with detachable wing collar) has the required stiff pique front, as did my point down shirt I wore for my wedding -- but I don't find anything prom or cheese about pleats. Ruffles, on the other hand...

Studs are a must, unless there are no buttons revealed by the shirt (as opposed to the vest covering the studs). French cuffs (aka double cuffs) or single cuffs are okay (single cuffs are a must for white tie), but the point is that you should be wearing cuff links.

Compared to vests and waistcoats, I am least enthusiastic about cumberbunds, but they are perfectly fine.

That is all.

Postscript: That is all indeed. I ended up going no vest, no bun, bow tie with suspenders. It worked well, I'll post pictures if I get one from some one else

Sparks = Wrong: World=Screwed

You know things are really melting down when Sparks is wrong. The whole time I've known him he's never been wrong about anything. So last week when he declared the market would not sink below 7115, my first instinct was to leverage everything I have and get rick quick. Unfortunately student loan debt is hard to leverage - and a good thing too, because Sparks was wrong. Now I know the world is really in for it, because when this guy is wrong, there aren't many people left to be right.