Monday, October 19, 2009

Ask xTian: Should the Jets bench the Sanchize?

As the NY Jets fall to 3-3 we take a hard look at whether they should bench their top draft pick and starting Quarterback Mark Sanchez

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So apparently, being a Quarterback in the NFL is harder than we all thought. Interesting.

Rex Ryan decided not to bench Sanchez yesterday, but I would have been OK with it if he did. Not because I was worried about the game but because I was worried about his psyche. In the 4th quarter he was locking on receivers and the ball was sailing on him. The Bills secondary ate that up. He was done for the day. Blasphemy you say? Not really. Why would I be ok benching Mark? Two reasons:

(1) A little benching never hurt anyone
Here is an interesting fact, in the history of the NFL three Quarterbacks have been taken #1 overall and made it to the Hall Fame. They are in order - Terry Bradshaw, John Elway and Troy Aikman (Namath was taken 1st overall in the AFL draft so I leave him out of this part of the discussion and Peyton is not in the Hall of Fame yet). Surprisingly, all three were benched at least once in their rookie season some more than once. I still think somewhere in his heart Jimmy Johnson thinks Steve Walsh is a better QB than Troy (shut up Jimmy). Despite this setback, each rose to the occasion, took their benching like a man, got to watch the game for a minute and learn instead of just getting his clock cleaned all day. Getting benched mid game is not a one way ticket. Anyone can come back from that.

(2) First years are hard on rookie QBs. Here are first year numbers for notable QBs:

Name        Year   Age   Tm   G   GS   QBrec   Cmp   Att   Cmp%   Yds   TD   Int  
Namath      1965   22   NYJ   13   9   3-5-1   164   340   48.2   2220   18   15  
Elway        1983   23   DEN   11   10   4-6-0   123   259   47.5   1663   7   14  
Aikman      1989   23   DAL   11   11   0-11-0   155   293   52.9   1749   9   18  
Manning     1998   22   IND   16   16   3-13-0   326   575   56.7   3739   26   28  

Everyone one of them looked awful and cost their teams games. The Colts were awful so people were fine with Peyton sailing passes all year. Different situation for the Jets. People see them as a borderline playoff team, but borderline playoff teams are .500 teams (or worse) if you let your rookie QB go thru growing pains. Tough call for the team.

There are outliers. Last year, Joe Flacco had a "good year" but really he just hid behind a very good Ravens defense. Matt Ryan handed the ball off to Michael Turner 400 times last year and learned a lot. This year he spends a quarter of his life dumping off to Tony Gonzalez.

This does not absolve Mark of some very clear improvements he needs to make
- He does not protect the ball terribly well when on the move
- He locks onto receivers sometimes, which gives the secondary time to adjust

Yesterday in particular - with Crotchery out of the game, Braylon in a regular double team and Dustin Keller running sloppy routes the Bills sat on Sanchez's look and pounced on the ball. Horrible. This is not good. I will admit, I blame it all on global warming, Sunday played like December. In December, Giants Stadium befriends no man. If you are Kerry Collins, Vinny Testaverde, or a young Brett Favre you throw the ball hard enough that it can knife through those winds. If you are Phil Simms, Chad Pennington or even Boomer Esaison you throw low and you throw tight. If you don't do this your ball gets too much of the swirly under it. People start thinking you aren't a good QB even though you are top 5 at your position (Yes - I still love Eli).

That is two games that Mark has cost the Jets (and counting). By no means, do I think Mark belongs in the same category with anyone mentioned above yet, but similarly we can't discount him yet either. It's all a learning process

Still, he should start against Oakland. Woo, but Rex should not be afraid to pull him if it gets ugly.