Why We Aren't Ready for Great Depression 2.0

Like a lot of people, I'm really really freaked out by some of the dismal predictions people have for 2009 and beyond. I get a double dose of Depression speak though, because in addition to scanning all of the mainstream media I happen to have a wife whose job it is to forecast just how bad the shitstorm will be. So, she spends all day predicting the scale of the disaster before us, and that's what I get for pillow talk before I fall asleep each night.

So I've had ample opportunity to come to the conclusion that I don't have the emotional means to deal with the worst case scenarios. I'm a real sissy when it comes to confronting bad news. And then to exacerbate my anxiety, I opened the paper the other day and saw this image from Great Depression 1.0. WTF! Look at that line. It's so perfect it almost looks staged. Does anyone among us really have the discipline or temperance to stand in a line that perfect? Look at it! They are all huddled against the each other as though their shoe laces are tied together. And how much skill does it take to leave 30% of the sidewalk free (presumably for all the rich people that don't need to stand in line)?

I don't go to McDonald's very often, but it's probably the best proxy we have for something like this, and I can assure you our collective line standing ability has suffered mightily with all of these decades of wealth and affluence. Obama would be wise to go ahead and name a Line Czar, because we're going to need one.

Smarter for Having Done This

Evil and crew just called me at the vacation home in Fl as the Jets wound down their disappoint season.

Rather than sit through the end of this I read the following two article and am a better person for having done it.

Vanity Fair's Oral History of The Bush White House

The Times (UK)'s Coverage of the Rise of Amateur Crime Fighting in the United States

Week 17!!!!

Am I the only one who feels that NBC should have flexed into this game? I want to see this game.

Sometimes I miss this guy

Open question on Race

Evil has this funny move. He frequently accuses me of being "white-washed" in very subtle ways.

• His frequent comments about my not being into Latina women
• His commentary on Christmas gifts I get for my godchildren

Several years ago, I bought one a train set. Evil's comment was something to the effect of "What are you? White?" As if this was the biggest slur he could lay on me.

Anyway, I usually let this slide. After all there is nothing particularly caucasian about train sets. It's just silliness...he should be Silly not Evil...heh

Evil's recent obsession with grammar is a far stronger indictment of his own "white-washing" than me frenching a blonde or walking around with a train set from FAO. Everyone's favorite website from January 2008 seems to agree.

I mostly wanted to point out Evil is sort of racist.

Happy New Years!

Best Post 2008 - VOTE!

Evil


Mamacita had a great idea. Since the year is drawing to a close, she suggested that our last poll of 2008 be for The Hose's Best Post of 2008. I asked each writer to submit one post for the poll. Remember, this poll is for "Best Post" and not Best Writer. Other than that, there are no other rules or criteria. It's up to you, Hosers, to decide on best post based on whatever you like. The Hose is democratic and liberal that way!

Here are your nominees:

"Happy Birthday!" by Mamacita

"Desperation Infused Vodka" by XTIAN

"The Dieter's Drinking Companion" by Sparks

"Evil's Epic Collapse" by Killer B#1

"To The Man And His Baby On The Subway" by Evil

Please vote! And feel free to provide additional commentary in the comments section, if you'd like. Thanks everyone for making 2008 the best year in Hose history.

Reflection on 2008

In reviewing past posts from 2008, I realize I don't have that many great ones - mostly complaining about KenTak3 or oogling over puppies. I can try to do better in 2009, and write some insightful things about politics, books, or even some dates, but until then, I'm still in the same rut.

Here's a video of my sister's puppy, Max (soon to arrive on Dec 30). I'll try to get her to install a puppy-cam - maybe that will generate more Hose traffic and revenue.

HAPPY FESTIVUS to everyone!

2008: The Year in Music

2008 was a pretty good year to be a music fan. A lot of neat new artists that I really liked emerged (Black Kids, MGMT, She & Him). Other artists that I have great fondness for came back (Kings of Leon, The Submarines).

Overall, I have been really drawn to electronic sounding, dance-able music. Is that new? I guess not. The front end of this mix is electronic heavy but it lightens up noticeably towards the back and very quickly becomes more acoustic and vaguely country towards the back end...

In case you are wondering, the best people I saw live this year were Radiohead, The Roots(that's always true though), Kevin Drew (with the rest of the Broken Social Scene), Julieta Venegas (who rocked an accordion and brought a brass section with her to Central Park!) and and surprisingly The Dandy Warhols...who were pretty good...I know...crazy

I am hoping to see Bon Iver in the New Year...that should be great.

If you guys loved anything else that I missed, please let me know...

Cocktail Hour: Noggin

Merry Christmas, Hosers!

This is a great time for drinkers of all faiths. The short days near the solstice give way to early evenings, when a meaningful nighttime cocktail hour can be had without pushing dinner back to midnight. Families get together and drink away the awkward silence. Otherwise puritan offices suddenly become lubricated with good cheer. It’s the most wonderful time of the year.

The most famous and maligned Christmas cocktail is, of course, spiked egg nog. I personally do not hate store-bought egg nog, but I understand why so many people do. The consumption experience can be eerily similar to drinking paint. But real, home made egg nog is a delicious annual treat and one of my favorite seasonal cocktails. The eggs and cream create a rich, textured base. The bourbon and brandy add a touch of heat and oaky smoothness. The nutmeg adds a spicey kick. I try to find occasion to make a batch every year. Catjjy and I brought some to a dinner party last weekend, with great results.

Some folks make egg nog with raw eggs, but I always use cooked egg. It tastes just as good, and it will not give you or your guests salmonella. The recipe below yields one large pitcher or one small punch bowl worth of nog. For the record, I didn’t make up the recipe, but I do use it every year.

3 cups whole milk
7 eggs

1 cup sugar
1/3 cup bourbon
1/3 cup brandy
2 cups cream
1 tbsp vanilla
Nutmeg (fresh or store-bought ground nutmeg)

Bring the milk just to a boil while you beat the eggs and sugar together. Add the hot milk to the eggs-sugar mix and stir. Put the mixture back on low heat until a thermometer reads 170 (about 5 minutes for the thermometerless), stirring continuously. Strain the mix into a large bowl (or skip the straining for the strainerless). Add cream, bourbon, brandy and vanilla. Stir in nutmeg until the nog is a bit speckled.

The nog should cool to room temperature, then be refrigerated. Your nog will be cold and delicious in a few hours, and will be outstanding the following day. Serve with a bit of grated nutmeg on top.

That will serve the masses, but for you the bartender, I recommend one glass of my favorite holiday treat: warm egg nog. Scoop a mug full out of your bowl before you let it cool. The booze will not yet have evaporated, giving the nog a strong bite. The warm cream, eggs, and vanilla feel like a drinkable crème brule. You’ll wonder why anyone ever drinks it cold.

Cheers.

Demonstration in Masculinity, II

An apt metaphor for the Jets' season.

Demonstration in Masculinity

Xtian's dream is to one day be as manly as Brett Favre. He's got a long way to go, so may I suggest the "little steps" plan. Hey Xtian, check out this clip and at least try to be as manly as this dude first.

Oiled up

Great question, Killer B! I like and respect you as well.

Oil price movements in the last year have left a lot of people scratching their heads. I’ve read almost nothing intelligent on the matter. Some members of the media and more than a few politicians seem to think speculators are to blame. Killer B is right to disregard that notion. Speculators do indeed increase demand for oil by buying contracts to take possession of oil at a later date. However, since they don’t actually want to take possession of a bunch of oil, they need to sell those contracts before they expire. Buying and selling an equal number of contracts pushes out the supply and demand curves equally. No effect on prices.

The shapes of the supply and demand curves tell a much more interesting story. The demand curve we learn in Micro 101 is a straight, upward-slopping line, meaning the more a product sells for, the more of it manufacturers will produce. But oil’s supply curve isn’t a straight line. Like every commodity, oil’s supply curve is based on the cost of production. The graph below is illustrative if not accurate, but something like 90% of the maximum daily output can be had for pretty reasonable prices. After that there is a sharp inflection point. Marginal sources become much, much more expensive to turn on. Oil shares this shape with nearly every commodity with limited storage (natural gas, electric power, etc.):



For many products, this shape exists, but is not a daily part of our lives because the demand curve crosses somewhere far away from this kink in the supply curve. The Micro 101 demand curve is a downward sloping straight line, meaning that as prices for a good rise, the quantity purchased falls. Oil is a bit trickier. Over long periods of time, oil has a downward sloping demand curve. People buy smaller cars, figure out the bus schedule, move closer to work, etc. But in the very short term, there is very little the world can do to use less oil. The demand curve in the short run is thus a vertical line, shown below in red:



The price we pay and for the quantity we demand is shown at the intersection of the supply and demand curves.

Now here’s the fun part. Both the supply curve and the demand curve move around from day to day and year to year. What we saw a year ago was the supply curve squeezing in due to supply disruptions in Iraq and Nigeria, along with natural decline in Norway, Mexico and other places. At the same time, the demand curve was pushing out due to a growing Chinese middle class and economic expansion in the West. The new graph looked like this:

Over the past few months, a global recession has brought the demand curve back in. A bonanza of oil infrastructure investments made over the past decade has come on line, pushing the supply curve out. The combination has crushed prices:

This explains 90% of the movements we’ve seen. There are other things around the edges, like government policy and the relative strength of the US dollar, but those aren’t as important.

Stump Sparks

I like Sparks. I like him for a lot of reasons. A couple of those reasons are that he's wicked smart, and also he's good people (Andrea - I recognize that despite the "s", "Sparks" is singular, and people is plural, but feel free to comment). These two things are often mutually exclusive, so he's got that going for him. In my opinion, his forte in the world of wicked smartness is understanding cause and effect. He's like a cause and effect genius. If you name a cause, he can name the effect(s). And if you name an effect, he can name the cause(s).

So today I'm going to give Sparks an effect and ask him to explain the cause.

Effect: oil is trading in the neighborhood of $40 (down from the $150+ range earlier this year).
Cause: ???

I've always assumed that demand for this sludge is fairly constant and predictable, and that OPEC is at least somewhat influential in managing supply - so how can we have such a range over such a short period? It doesn't make sense to me. I can understand how other commodities produced in limited regions of the world and subject to new technologies / innovations might move quite a bit - but oil? Commentators seem to point the finger at speculating hedge funds, but that seems impossible to me - such a big market.

So, Sparks - what gives?

The Hosers Have Spoken

I have to admit that I'm a bit surprised. When I posted this poll, some of the choices were offered just as a courtesy nod to various articles we've seen over the past few months. I didn't think they would actually collect votes. (Do you like how that comment obscurely avoids mentioning which ones?)

At least the good news is that no one thinks we should dump the current staff of Hose writers and get new ones.

I'm a bit sad that dog tails didn't win, but I guess third place isn't bad. (I know you had our backs on that one, Nora.)

Well, xTian, to hold our readership, it looks like you'll need to round up some good Date or Die material. The more racy and inappropriate, the better, and it would help if you could throw some puppy stories in there too.

Playing Santa

I am definitely at a low point in life. When I walk into a room, people who love me and root for me in life will allow themselves a momentary head shake just to emphasize their disappointment. I have never seen it. Nonetheless, I know its there. After all, my friends and family tend to be classy people who have a lot of restraint.

I thought about this quite a bit last night. As I am off to visit my family for Christmas, I needed to play Santa a bit early. I decided I would make two stop on the xtian Santa Land Express.

The first stop was relatively uneventful. Declaring myself the best dressed Santa they have ever seen I entered and dropped a bag of gifts on the floor. Of course, sad single man I am, I did not have any tags for the gifts. So later, I quietly picked the bag up again as I begged my cousin for tags. Classy! Very classy...

At my second stop, I entertained the Gremlins with a story right out of our Is this normal series from a few years ago. My mother never bought into the Santa Claus stuff. One year, after what I can only assume was external pressure, she made the Bump and I write letters to Santa. Not wanting to waste a stamp, she never mailed them and three days later, she promptly deposited a gift from Santa under the tree for us. Never mind that it was December 3rd.

The boys looked at me with wide eyed amazement that shifted subtly between amusement (“xTian’s mom is sillier than xTian”) and shock (“wait? No Santa?”)

Looking at my cousin, I noticed she was holding a polite smile. This was a weak mask, as she clearly wished I would just shut up and stop ruining Christmas. As the boys bounded about, they were clearly clamoring to open their gifts, arguing as only three year olds could, that a demystified Christmas meant they could open gifts now. Well., let's not give them too much credit; this came through as some random pouting and occasional rushes towards the gifts under the tree rather than any logical case for opening gifts.

The net effect was the same. My mission accomplished and her children were wound up beyond repair at 10pm with no intention of sleeping for several hours.

I showed myself out, walking out into the snow, a metrosexual Santa with no where to go...

wooooo

Gremlins

The xTian Clan knows how to handle recessions. A few weeks ago, one of my aunts sent out an email insisting that only children should get gifts this year on the logic that having to get everyone a gift would be both time consuming and expensive. There's a recession going! Time to batten down the hatches! Exclamation points are free!

My mother phoned me recently to comment on how smart this was. I agreed. Getting her a gift is a bum deal for all involved. I'm happy to be spared the torture. It's the same deal every year. She never likes it. She makes it a point to say so while asking for a receipt. Two hours later, you have the good fortune of watching your mother proudly hang something horrendous on her wall or whatever. Yay!

I got annoyed thinking about this so I decided to bum her out. I pointed out to her that her family is still have children, by the boatload it seems. Further,the Bumapasaurus and I have not even gotten on the train yet. I predicted that this gremlinication of her family will continue for some time. She sighed and hung up.

Holiday Gift Giving

Is this racist?

Activities List for Evil

Evil,
Would love if you could take a few things on this week

• Redesign the logo for the Hose
  
• Post something/anything funny
  
• get my godson a train set and have it wrapped please
  

Does anyone else have some stuff that Evil can do this week?

Thanks

xtian

The Hose Book Club

Our recent thread on genders and book clubs was fairly well received. Catjjy and Andrea have both moved for a Book Club.

I just can't fathom sitting around sipping tea and talking about a book. So here is what I propose.

Every couple of months, I pick a book and post it as what I am reading. As part of the "we love to read" series, I will finish the book and write a review for it. Since you have the opportunity to read along with me, you will be able to post your own reviews in the comments section, driving what I hope will be pithy conversation.

To kick this off, I am going to read The Wordy Shipmates by Sarah Vowell. Vowell will probably be known to you from her work in the film, The Incredibles or her commentary on This American Life on NPR. A few years ago, Sparks suggested I read her book Assassination Vacation. AV was a hysterical book, that followed Vowell as she toured sites that related to and studied the history of the three presidential assassinations in US history.

This book takes a similar tone to explore the nature of the puritans who founded this country. I expect to enjoy this book very much and and hope you will too.

Anyway, let's give it a shot and see how it goes.


Update:
I have no idea how long it will take you to read this book. I can tell you now it will take me 3 days from the moment I pick it up. I'm pretty sure that's not enough time. So I will read it and write my review but not post it till January 15th, 2009. That should give folks ample time to read it.

The link on the side takes you to Amazon.com where the book is for sale for $17 plus some change and tax. amazon.com is a pretty handy site for folks who like to read.